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PHAC: Modelling Opioid Overdose Deaths During the COVID-19 Outbreak 

11-10-2020 14:50

PUBLIC HEALTH AGENCY OF CANADA (PHAC)

The Chief Public Health Officer of Canada’s Report on the State of Public Health in Canada

From Risk to Resilience: An Equity Approach to COVID-19

The report describes COVID-19s broader consequences and is a call to incorporate a health equity approach into pandemic preparedness, response and recovery.  The issues of substance use, increased use of alcohol, tobacco, and cannabis, and the worsening of the opioid crisis are addressed beginning on page 33 of the report.

Modelling opioid overdose deaths during the COVID-19 outbreak

The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) has developed a simulation model of opioid overdose deaths that provides information on the number of these deaths that might occur during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020. Simulations were based on several scenarios.  They reflect how the COVID-19 context may affect:

  • the level of toxic fentanyl and its analogues in the drug supply
  • the proportion of opioid overdose deaths prevented by public health measures, like supervised consumption sites and naloxone use

PHAC’s model simulates opioid overdose deaths in a way that closely matches observed opioid overdose deaths from 2016 through 2019. The model’s projections for 2020 suggest that, under some scenarios, the opioid overdose crisis may resurge or surpass levels seen at the height of the opioid overdose crisis in late 2018.


#Opioids
#EvidenceSummary
#COVID-19
#SubstanceUse

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